Gold Climbs Back Above $4,000 as Oil Cools, With the Federal Reserve Up Next
Gold recovered to about $4,020 after Friday's three-month low as cheaper oil eased inflation fears. The Federal Reserve decides on Wednesday.
XAUUSD · Updated hourly on weekdays
Gold hourly signal
One clear hourly reading for XAUUSD, built from moving averages, indicators, levels and the news that moves gold.
Updated · Spot 4,013.03 (+19.37, +0.49%)
Hourly decision · 4:13 PM Eastern Time
Neutral
- Strong Sell
- Sell
- Neutral
- Buy
- Strong Buy
4,013.03 +19.37 (+0.49%) US dollars per ounce, against the previous close
Moving averages
Strong Sell3 buy · 9 sell
Technical indicators
Strong Buy7 buy · 2 neutral · 2 sell
Other timeframes
- 15 minutesStrong Sell
- 30 minutesSell
- 5 hoursStrong Sell
- DailyStrong Sell
- WeeklyStrong Sell
Hourly outlook
Bias Neutral, leaning sell on rallies (range into the 5 PM break) · Confidence low
The hourly summary eased to Neutral at 4:13 PM: moving averages Strong Sell (3 Buy, 9 Sell, price just under the 5 and 10-hour averages near 4,014 to 4,016 and far below the 100 and 200-hour averages near 4,054 to 4,109) while indicators turned Strong Buy (7 Buy, 2 Neutral, 2 Sell) with the Relative Strength Index flat near 50, MACD just above zero and volatility low. Price is about 4,013, pinned around the hourly pivot near 4,011.6 after the 3 PM dip held above 4,007.9. 15-minute reads Strong Sell, 30-minute Sell, and the 5-hour, daily and weekly trend stays Strong Sell; fundamentals are neutral (softer oil, Fed pause expected Wednesday) and sentiment negative. With liquidity thinning before the 5 PM ET break, treat this as a range between about 4,005 and 4,018 and wait for a break; the higher-timeframe downtrend still favours selling failed rallies over buying.
Gold is sitting on the fence, and the fence is comfortable.
- Targets
- Down: about 4,005 to 4,009 (hourly classic S1 and S2), then about 4,000 to 4,004 (hourly S3, daily classic pivot and 1-hour swing levels), then about 3,988. Up: about 4,015 to 4,018 (hourly R1 and R2), then 4,022 and today's high near 4,030.
- Invalidation
- An hourly close above about 4,018 (hourly R2) turns the read to buy, with 4,022 and 4,030 next; an hourly close below about 4,005 (hourly S2) turns it back to sell toward 4,000 and 3,988.
- Higher timeframes
- 5-hour, daily and weekly all read Strong Sell; price is below every daily moving average and the 100 and 200-hour averages (about 4,054 to 4,109).
- Event risk
- No scheduled US data for the rest of today; the daily break runs 5 to 6 PM ET and liquidity is thin around it. Tuesday 8:30 AM durable goods and 10:00 AM consumer confidence, Wednesday 2:00 PM Fed decision (pause widely expected, December hike odds about 80 percent per CME FedWatch via Reuters/CNBC), Thursday 8:30 AM growth and inflation.
This is analysis, not financial advice.
Nearest levels
- Resistance
- 4,022.00 1-hour swing high Mon 04:00
- Support
- 4,003.70 1-hour swing high Sun 18:00
- Invalidation
- 4,018.00
- Futures and gap
- 4,025.70 GC=F, gap 14.24
For your Expert Advisor
The same reading is published every hour as a tiny file your MetaTrader 4 Expert Advisor can download with WebRequest.
NEUTRAL|0|4013.03|2026-10-26T20:13:46Z|2026-10-26T21:23:46Z|4003.70|4022.00|4018.00|0|1Latest gold news and analysis
All Gold News →Recent hourly decisions
| Time (Eastern) | Hourly | Moving averages | Indicators (buy/neutral/sell) | Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/26 16:13 | Neutral | Strong Sell (3/9) | Strong Buy (7/2/2) | 4,013.03 |
| 10/26 15:14 | Strong Sell | Strong Sell (1/11) | Sell (4/1/6) | 4,010.18 |
| 10/26 14:16 | Strong Buy | Buy (7/5) | Strong Buy (7/1/2) | 4,020.19 |
| 10/26 13:15 | Strong Buy | Strong Buy (8/4) | Strong Buy (8/0/1) | 4,026.19 |
| 10/26 12:15 | Strong Buy | Buy (7/5) | Strong Buy (6/1/3) | 4,018.62 |
| 10/26 11:36 | Buy | Neutral (6/6) | Strong Buy (6/1/3) | 4,016.99 |
How this dashboard reads the gold chart
Every hour the dashboard rebuilds the gold chart on six timeframes, from 15 minutes to weekly, and asks the same questions a disciplined chartist would. Is price above or below its simple and exponential averages of 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 and 200 bars? Are momentum gauges such as the Relative Strength Index, the stochastic oscillator and the commodity channel index rising, falling or stretched? Each answer is a vote. When buy votes clearly outnumber sell votes the group reads Buy, and when they lead by two to one or more it reads Strong Buy, with the mirror image for selling.
The hourly reading is what the signal feed publishes, but it is never shown alone. Higher timeframes, the dollar, Treasury yields, central bank expectations, fund flows and positioning are summarised on the fundamentals and sentiment page, and scheduled releases on the economic calendar. A short-term buy against a falling daily trend is labelled counter-trend for exactly that reason.
Frequently asked questions
What is the hourly gold signal?
It is a summary of twelve moving averages and twelve technical indicators on the one-hour gold chart (XAUUSD). Each one votes buy, sell or neutral, and the votes are combined into one of five readings: Strong Buy, Buy, Neutral, Sell or Strong Sell. It describes the chart; it is not a trade recommendation.
How often is it updated?
Every hour on weekdays, during the gold trading day that runs from 6 PM to 5 PM Eastern Time. Each reading carries a time stamp and an expiry about 70 minutes later, so software can tell when a reading is out of date.
Can my MetaTrader 4 Expert Advisor read the signal?
Yes. The signal is published as small files (signal.txt, signal.json and signal.csv) that an Expert Advisor can download with the WebRequest function. The signal feed page explains the format and how to allow the web address under Tools, Options, Expert Advisors.
Why is the price slightly different from my broker?
The readings are calculated from COMEX gold futures, which arrive about 10 minutes delayed, and are converted to an approximate spot price using the measured gap between futures and spot. Brokers quote their own prices and spreads, so levels can differ by a few dollars.
Does a Strong Buy mean gold will go up?
No. A Strong Buy only means that most hourly averages and indicators currently point up. Short-term readings flip often, can disagree with the daily and weekly trend, and can be overridden by news such as a Federal Reserve decision.
Is this financial advice?
No. The site is general technical analysis for education and research. It does not know your finances or goals, and trading gold on margin carries a high risk of loss.